Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25?

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Market context

On 25 June 2026, the Wellington International Airport Station will record its highest daily temperature in degrees Celsius, a real-world event that determines the outcome of a prediction market currently implying zero probability for any YES result. This 0% crowd-implied probability starkly diverges from historical patterns and analyst expectations, suggesting the market may be mispricing the likelihood of a temperature spike, especially given that June highs in Wellington typically range between 12°C and 16°C, rarely exceeding 19°C[1][4].

Historical data frames this current probability as an outlier, with June daily highs at Wellington International Airport decreasing by 3°F from 57°F to 54°F, rarely falling below 50°F or exceeding 62°F[1]. Notably, MetService NZ recently reported that Wellington has already beaten its maximum June temperature on record, with over 19°C recorded earlier in the month, indicating that record-breaking warmth is possible even in winter[3]. This recent divergence between the 0% market line and the actual occurrence of record June temperatures suggests a significant gap between sportsbook-style odds and the physical reality of the weather.

Traders should monitor MetService NZ announcements and the scheduled release of daily Wunderground data for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, as these are the primary dependencies for settlement[3]. The recent state of emergency declared for parts of Wellington due to a storm pounding the capital city, which cancelled flights and ferries, adds volatility to the weather forecast and could influence temperature anomalies[5]. With the settlement window ending on 25 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the timing of these weather bureau updates will be critical for assessing whether the 0% probability is justified or a mispricing opportunity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.