Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington’s airport needs an unusually warm afternoon for this contract to clear the lower temperature bands, because June is normally a cool month there: average highs ease from about 56°F to 53°F, with daily maxima rarely above 61°F[1]. That makes the market’s **0% YES** crowd view a statement about how unusual the required outcome is, not a forecast of impossibility; Wellington has still posted genuine winter warmth in the past, including a 30.3°C maximum at Kelburn on a record-breaking June day[2]. The comparison across platforms therefore matters: the crowd price is effectively saying the airport’s daily high will stay well below the upper end of the settlement grid, while the historical record shows that sharp spikes can and do occur, albeit rarely[1][2].

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s temperature path at Wellington Intl Airport and whether a northerly flow, clear skies, or föhn-like warming develops during the local afternoon before the settlement cut-off. The market resolves to the **highest temperature recorded** on Wunderground for Wellington Intl Airport Station, so intraday peaks matter more than the daily mean, and the final print could differ from central Wellington observations if coastal winds keep the airport cooler[5]. Recent regional weather commentary also shows how quickly Wellington can swing into record territory when warm air arrives, with MetService noting the city had already beaten its June maximum on the first two days of the month in a prior instance[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.