Highest temperature in Wellington on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 8 July 2026, the Wellington International Airport Station will record its highest temperature for the day, a single real-world data point that determines the outcome of a prediction market with a current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome. This near-zero probability reflects the market’s assessment that the event is virtually impossible under current conditions, likely due to the extreme cold expected in Wellington during mid-July, when average highs rarely exceed 14°C.

Historical data from Wellington (Kelburn) shows that July temperatures typically cluster around 6.4°C to 17.0°C, with the highest recorded in July 2026 reaching 20.5°C at the NSW site, though this is not the same station[3]. In contrast, the all-time maximum for Wellington was 30.3°C, recorded on a heatwave day in 2026, but such extremes are rare and not typical for mid-July[5]. The 0% implied probability aligns with the expectation that temperatures will remain well below any threshold that would trigger a "YES" resolution.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source[9]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover, wind patterns, or unseasonal warm air intrusion could alter the forecast, though no such anomalies have been reported as of 8 AM UTC on 8 July 2026. The settlement window ends at 12:00:00Z on 8 July 2026, leaving little time for late-breaking developments to influence the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on July 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.