Highest temperature in Wellington on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s airport station is the reference point here, so the key question is whether the day’s peak reaches the **13°C–14°C band** that the market is pricing most heavily. Polymarket shows **14°C** as the clear front-runner at **63%**, with **13°C** second at **22%**, while the crowd has given **0%** to the YES side of the separate contract framing you supplied, which suggests either an illiquid or mismatched view rather than a normal consensus signal.[1]

That pricing sits broadly in line with Wellington’s July climate profile, where the city tends to be cool and unsettled rather than warm. July is the wettest month in Wellington in the climate data cited, and the same source puts July precipitation chance around **21%**, while a separate July outlook describes typical highs near **12°C** and lows near **9°C**, which makes a mid-teens maximum plausible but not assured.[2][3] In other words, traders appear to be clustering around a modestly above-average winter high rather than betting on an unusual warm spike.[1][3]

The main catalyst is the actual airport observation window on the day, because the contract resolves off the highest temperature recorded at Wellington Intl Airport Station on 24 July via Wunderground. That means short-lived warming, wind shifts, or a dry break during the afternoon matter more than the morning setup, and any late change in local conditions will be more relevant than broader New Zealand headlines. With settlement ending at **12:00 UTC**, traders will watch the station’s intraday readings and any updated airport-area forecast guidance rather than national averages.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on July 24? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.