Highest temperature in Wellington on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 5 August 2026, with settlement tied to the Wunderground station record rather than a general city forecast. The current crowd price of **0% YES** is sharply at odds with the live market view on Polymarket, where the leading outcomes are **9°C at 51%** and **10°C at 29%**, implying traders see a cool winter day as the base case rather than an extreme reading.[3]

That positioning fits the historical pattern for Wellington in August, when average highs are typically in the low teens Celsius and day-to-day swings are usually modest. External forecast lines are similarly clustered around the high single digits to low teens: the Met Office forecast shows a maximum daytime temperature of **9°C** among its published periods, while other August references point to typical highs around **11–12°C** or broadly stable conditions near that range.[5][6][8] In other words, the market is not pricing a heat spike, and a settled day near 9°C–10°C looks materially more likely than either an unusually cold maximum or a warmer-than-normal break.

Traders should watch the airport observation feed, because this contract resolves to the highest recorded temperature for the day and can be influenced by the timing of any late-morning or early-afternoon warming before marine cloud or rain moves in. The most relevant catalyst is therefore not a headline announcement but the sequence of local observations and short-range forecasts, especially any updates showing cloud thickening, onshore wind, or rain limiting the day’s peak. MetService and other forecast services currently point to a cool, breezy winter setup for Wellington, which supports the existing crowd bias towards the single-digit outcomes rather than any broad consensus for a much warmer print.[8][10][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.