Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 3 August, with the market resolving on the Celsius range that contains that peak reading. Wellington’s August climate is usually cool and fairly tightly clustered: typical monthly highs sit around 12–14°C, with August averages across multiple climatology sources landing near 12°C to 13.6°C, so the implied 0% YES pricing appears to be treating a materially higher daytime spike as very unlikely rather than impossible.[1][2][7][10]

That probability also needs to be read against Wellington’s historical spread, which can still produce occasional outliers above the monthly mean. Long-run August summaries cite record highs around 61°F/16°C and day-by-day examples in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, suggesting that any move into the upper-teens would be a real departure from normal, while a low-to-mid teens outcome would fit the standard distribution more closely.[6][10] There is no obvious sportsbook benchmark in the provided material, so the main comparison point is the market’s own near-zero pricing versus the climatological baseline, which would ordinarily place the most probable range in the low teens rather than at the extremes.[1][2][7]

For traders, the key catalyst is the airport’s hourly progression through the local daytime peak, because the settlement is tied to the single highest observation logged on the date, not the overnight minimum or the daily average. The resolution source is Wunderground’s Wellington Intl Airport Station history page, so any update there after the local afternoon warmth, cloud cover, wind shifts, or a brief northerly flow will matter more than broader monthly averages.[9][13] In practical terms, the contract will usually be driven by whether the day stays near climatology or briefly breaks into an above-normal warm pocket before the close of the settlement window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.