Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Warsaw Chopin Airport on 27 July 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved via historical weather data from Wunderground. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting specific temperature thresholds to be defined or treating this as a placeholder market pending clarification of the resolution bands.

Warsaw's July climate typically peaks between 24–27°C, with occasional heat waves pushing into the low 30s. Historical records show extreme temperatures are rare but not unprecedented; the city recorded 30.0°C on 27 July 2015 and 29.8°C on 27 July 2012. These precedents establish that mid-to-high 20s readings are baseline expectations, whilst anything above 28°C would represent notably warm conditions for that specific date. The absence of meaningful probability allocation across any temperature band suggests the market may lack clearly defined resolution ranges, preventing traders from positioning effectively.

European summer forecasting remains uncertain this far ahead, though seasonal models typically indicate July 2026 will follow established patterns for Central Europe. Traders should monitor meteorological outlooks released in late June 2026, particularly any signals of high-pressure systems or Atlantic blocking patterns that could drive temperatures substantially above the 27°C median. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning morning temperature readings will be excluded from the final resolution—a detail that could matter if overnight cooling follows an exceptionally warm dawn.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.