Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and assigned to one of several temperature bands. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are either awaiting clarification on which specific temperature range this market references, or the resolution criteria remain ambiguous pending the market operator's final specification of the bands themselves. Wunderground historical data will serve as the authoritative source, with settlement occurring after the calendar day concludes.

Tokyo's June temperatures typically range between 23°C and 30°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The 0% probability across prediction markets contrasts sharply with the absence of comparable sportsbook lines for weather derivatives of this specificity—traditional weather betting rarely fragments into discrete daily temperature bands at single airport stations. Analyst consensus from Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks suggests early June sits within normal seasonal parameters, though inter-annual variability remains substantial. The divergence between zero crowd probability and the absence of alternative market pricing suggests traders may be withholding positions until the exact temperature bands are published by the market operator.

Traders should monitor the market operator's formal announcement of the temperature ranges before committing capital. Seasonal weather patterns and any tropical systems approaching Japan in early June will influence actual outcomes, though such systems remain difficult to forecast six months in advance. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 8 June 2026, allowing only the day's recorded high to determine resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.