Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily peak temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. This single data point will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the "YES" outcome, implying near-total certainty that the temperature will not fall within the specified range.

Historically, late June in Tokyo marks the onset of the hot season, with average highs around 27°C (80°F) and frequent spikes above 30°C. Recent records show extreme volatility: in July 2025, Japan hit 41.2°C, while Tokyo itself reached 36.4°C in a record June heatwave 147 years old, and the city logged ten consecutive days above 35°C in August 2024. These precedents suggest that a 0% implied probability is a stark divergence from analyst consensus on summer extremes, especially when sportsbooks often price in higher variance for weather contracts than prediction markets currently reflect.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heatwave bulletins and AccuWeather’s updated forecasts for Haneda, which currently project highs between 24°C and 28°C for late June. A sudden shift in the Pacific high-pressure system or an incoming typhoon could drastically alter temperatures, as seen in recent record-breaking events cited by Al Jazeera. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 30 June 2026, meaning any pre-noon data release from Wunderground will be the definitive resolution source.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 30? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.