Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s official daily high temperature on 9 July 2026 will be measured at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with the market resolving to the exact degree Celsius band that contains that peak reading. The current crowd-implied probability for a 29°C outcome sits at 0% on one platform, yet Lines.com prices the same 29°C band at 31.5%, revealing a stark divergence between prediction-market implied probabilities and cross-platform odds. This discrepancy suggests forecast models are converging on 29°C as the plurality outcome in a fragmented eleven-way market, even though it remains far from a majority.

Historical July highs in Tokyo typically range between 27°C and 33°C, with recent records showing Japan hitting 41.2°C in Tamba City last summer, though such extremes are rare in the capital. The 29°C band currently holds the highest single-outcome probability, yet traders collectively estimate only a one-in-three chance of this exact temperature, with ten other bands splitting the remaining probability. This plurality status means price can move sharply before resolution as new Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts publish.

Traders should monitor daily JMA weather bulletins and hourly updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for any sudden shifts in temperature trends. Recent reports confirm Japan is experiencing its warmest conditions yet, with humidity levels making outdoor activity difficult, which could push Tokyo’s high toward or beyond 29°C. The contract resolves at 12:00 UTC on 9 July 2026, so real-time data from the airport station will be critical in determining whether the 29°C band pays or collapses.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.