Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at hand is the peak daytime heat expected at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 7 July 2026, a date historically prone to the lingering tsuyu frontal activity that often suppresses maximum temperatures below 27°C. Current crowd-implied probability for the 27°C threshold sits at 0%, a stark divergence from analyst consensus which suggests a 38% chance for outcomes holding at that level. This misalignment mirrors similar discrepancies seen in sportsbook lines for weather-dependent events, where bookmakers frequently underprice the impact of stalled low-pressure systems compared to prediction-market traders who have absorbed recent meteorological data indicating persistent cloud cover.

Historical parallels from recent Julys in Tokyo show daily highs frequently hovering in the low 30s only when rain or clouds are absent, yet the region experiences rain or cloud cover almost daily during this period, keeping humidity high and temperatures moderated. Comparable cases from the 2026 forecast for Haneda indicate daily highs ranging from 76°F to 91°F (24°C to 33°C), with overnight lows between 68°F and 78°F, suggesting that without a significant break in the frontal activity, the maximum will likely remain below the 27°C mark. Traders should watch for announcements regarding the progression of the tsuyu front and any scheduled shifts in the low-pressure system, as recent reports from Lines.com highlight that lingering frontal activity could push outcomes toward the 25°C range rather than the higher threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

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How fast are USDC deposits?

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