Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s summer of 2026 has already set an immediate record, with the city hitting 36.8°C on Wednesday, while 271 observation points across Japan exceeded 35°C and 39 locations saw new highs[5]. This early heat surge frames the current prediction-market implied probability of 0% YES for any outcome below 26°C, a stark divergence from the Polymarket frontrunner assigning 59% to exactly 26°C and 20% to 25°C[1]. Historical July data for Tokyo Haneda International Airport shows daily highs typically ranging from 76°F to 91°F (24°C to 33°C), with mid-to-late July often reaching 36°C to 40°C amid 95%+ humidity[2][4]. The 0% market line suggests traders are betting against cooler thresholds, yet the consensus from weather analysts and recent extreme records—such as Japan’s all-time peak of 41.2°C in Tamba City last July[8]—supports a high-temperature outcome, creating a notable gap between sportsbook-style odds and prediction-market pricing.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heat advisories and the scheduled release of Wunderground’s hourly data for Tokyo Haneda Airport, as these will directly determine resolution[1]. The agency’s recent announcement of record-breaking temperatures across 39 locations signals a sustained heatwave pattern that could push Haneda’s peak well above 26°C[5]. Additionally, watch for updates on air conditioning capacity in Tokyo’s infrastructure, as concrete heat retention from 11 AM to 6 PM can elevate ambient temperatures even after sunset[2]. With settlement ending 2026-07-06T12:00:00Z, real-time odds shifts on Polymarket will reflect collective trader sentiment, but the underlying meteorological trend—driven by this year’s unprecedented early summer heat—remains the dominant catalyst for a high-temperature resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.