Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a metric that directly determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to a “YES” resolution. This implies the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely due to an anticipated cool spell or rain, despite July typically being one of Tokyo’s hottest months.

Historical data frames this zero probability as highly divergent from seasonal norms. July in Tokyo Haneda routinely sees daily highs between 26°C and 33°C (76°F to 91°F), with recent years recording peaks near 36°C amid 80% humidity [2][5]. The Met Office notes average July highs of 29°C, while the rainy season often extends into the month, bringing frequent but not necessarily cooling rains [7][8]. A current 0% implied probability suggests an unusual expectation of temperatures below 20°C, which contradicts the typical 76°F–91°F range for the month [2].

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts for sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation intensity, as these are the primary catalysts that could invalidate the zero-probability stance. The 10-day forecast currently indicates light rain and temperatures around 24°C–28°C (71°F–82°F) for the day, which may still fall within the disputed range if the market’s threshold is narrow [1][7]. A recent update from RP5 confirms high humidity (89%) and gentle breezes at the airport, conditions that typically sustain warmth rather than suppress it [6]. Any announcement of a sudden cold front or prolonged heavy rain from the Japan Meteorological Agency would be the critical dependency to watch before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.