Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 28 July 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and settled against historical weather data. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature range options available or treating this as a calibration exercise ahead of the settlement window closing on 28 July at noon UTC.

July temperatures at Tokyo Haneda typically peak between 32–35°C, with extreme heat days occasionally reaching 36–37°C. Historical records show that mid-to-late July consistently ranks among the hottest periods in Tokyo's summer season. The Japan Meteorological Agency's long-term data indicates that temperatures above 38°C at Haneda remain rare but not unprecedented; the highest recorded temperature in Tokyo proper reached 41.1°C in July 2023. Current market pricing at 0% suggests either the lowest temperature bracket is receiving all backing, or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish differentiated odds across ranges.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for extreme-heat warnings. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during northern hemisphere summer can shift seasonal temperature patterns meaningfully. Wunderground's historical data feed, the designated resolution source, updates daily and remains accessible throughout the settlement window, allowing traders to cross-reference forecasts against observed conditions as 28 July approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.