Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 27 July will be set by the value recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on Wunderground, not by broader Tokyo city averages, so the contract is really a single-station high-temperature bet. Polymarket’s crowd is currently anchored to the low 30s, with **30°C** leading at **39%** and **31°C** next at **25%**, while the market’s quoted **0% YES** implies the relevant contract side is being priced as effectively unavailable or misaligned rather than reflecting a genuine zero-temperature forecast.[1]

Recent July weather guidance for Japan points to hot, humid conditions, with typical daily temperatures in the **17°C to 30°C** range and heavy precipitation common across many cities, which helps explain why the market sits around the 30°C bracket rather than the mid-20s.[2] A useful comparator is the earlier Tokyo high-temperature contract for 18 July 2026, which resolved at **29°C** and shows that these markets can settle cleanly on a single bracket when the station observation lands just below the main crowd favourite.[3]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s actual temperature path at Haneda and any late-session weather shifts from cloud cover, rainfall, sea breeze or frontal activity that can hold the afternoon peak down or push it into the 31°C-plus band. There is no sportsbook line in the supplied material to anchor a cross-market price comparison, so the practical comparison is between Polymarket’s bracket distribution and weather-facing consensus from seasonal guidance, which still points to a warm summer day rather than an outlier cool spell.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.