Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature will be judged from the Haneda Airport reading, and the market is already pricing an extremely hot outcome: Polymarket shows **35°C** at **97%**, with **36°C** the nearest alternative at **2%**. That is a very different picture from the crowd-implied **0% YES** you supplied, so the main divergence here is between the contract’s live pricing and a separate yes/no framing rather than between bookmakers and forecasters, as no sportsbook line was provided.[1]

The historical frame is straightforward: late July in Tokyo is usually peak summer, with typical daytime highs around **29–33°C**, high humidity, and occasional heatwaves pushing temperatures into the upper 30s.[2][4] That makes a mid-30s result a more normal-favourite than an extreme tail event, which helps explain why the market clusters hard around **35°C** rather than lower bands.[1][2] In that sense, the current odds imply traders see a warm but not exceptional day as the base case, consistent with July climatology rather than an outlier spike.[2][4]

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s actual temperature profile at Haneda and whether cloud cover, sea breeze, or rainfall holds the afternoon peak down below the 35°C band before the settlement window closes. Tokyo July conditions are often humid and can still climb sharply after midday, so the most relevant live inputs are the airport station observations and any short-term weather updates on heat, rain bands, or frontal shifts.[2][3] With resolution tied to the day’s single highest reading, the market is sensitive less to the morning start than to any late-day maximum in the final hours before settlement.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.