Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces its peak summer heat today as the city monitors the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station for 17 July 2026, a metric that will settle a weather prediction market with a current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome. This near-zero pricing suggests traders believe the specific temperature range in question is virtually impossible given typical mid-July conditions, which usually see highs between 28°C and 34°C at this coastal station.

Historical data from the past decade shows Haneda rarely exceeds 36°C, with the last extreme spike occurring in 2018 when temperatures hit 37.1°C across the Kanto region, a case that frames the current 0% probability as a rational assessment of low-risk outliers. Comparable July 17 readings in 2023 and 2024 stayed well below 33°C, reinforcing the market’s view that the target range is outside the norm for this specific date and location.

Traders should watch the Japan Meteorological Agency’s hourly updates and any sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system, which could trigger unexpected heatwaves. A recent forecast from NHK News highlighted rising humidity levels across Tokyo this week, though no extreme heat advisories have been issued yet, meaning the settlement will likely reflect standard seasonal patterns rather than record-breaking anomalies.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.