Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces its peak summer heat on 16 July 2026, with the highest temperature at Haneda Airport Station set to determine the outcome of a weather prediction contract. The market currently shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the event will not resolve in the specific range being queried, while Polymarket data indicates 33°C is the frontrunner at 40% and 34°C follows at 28% [1].

Historical mid-July readings in Tokyo typically cluster between 30°C and 35°C, making the 0% YES probability a notable divergence from seasonal norms unless the contract specifies an unusually low threshold. Comparable cases from recent summers show Haneda frequently hitting 33°C or higher, meaning the current pricing implies either a specific range mismatch or a rare cooling anomaly that contradicts the collective view on competing platforms where 33°C dominates [1].

Traders should monitor the Wunderground daily history for RJTT as the settlement source, watching for real-time updates on the 16 July record as the day progresses. No specific weather announcements are pending, but the dependency on a single station’s hourly peak means volatility in the final hours could shift odds if early readings deviate from the 33°C consensus [1]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, leaving little time for late corrections once the official maximum is logged.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.