Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 14 July 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, meaning traders must assess seasonal norms and any anomalous weather patterns expected in mid-July before the final reading is locked in.

July temperatures at Tokyo Haneda typically range between 28°C and 35°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 37–38°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd-implied probability across prediction markets suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity on this contract. Historical July records for the Tokyo region show that temperatures above 35°C occur in roughly 30–40% of years, whilst readings exceeding 37°C remain less frequent. Comparable weather markets on other Japanese cities show more distributed probability curves, indicating this contract may be undertraded relative to its meteorological uncertainty.

Key variables affecting the outcome include the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system in mid-July 2026 and any tropical cyclone activity in the region during early-to-mid July, which could suppress temperatures. Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal forecasts, typically released in June, will provide the most reliable guidance on whether 2026 is tracking towards above-normal or near-normal summer temperatures. Urban heat island effects at Haneda—a densely developed airport zone—tend to amplify readings compared to surrounding rural areas, a factor worth considering when evaluating historical comparables.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.