Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces its peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the market betting on the highest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport. The current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sits at 0%, suggesting traders see no chance of the specific condition being met, yet Polymarket data shows 31°C as the frontrunner at 37%, followed by 32°C at 24% [2]. This divergence highlights a key tension: while the binary market dismisses the event entirely, the temperature-range market assigns significant weight to mid-30s Celsius, aligning with AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for Haneda, which projects daily highs between 29°C and 33°C (76°–91°F) [1].

Historically, mid-July in Tokyo routinely breaches 35°C, with recent years seeing extremes up to 41.2°C in western prefectures during record-breaking heatwaves in 2025 [7][10]. Haneda, however, often records slightly lower peaks than inland areas due to coastal moderation, yet still frequently reaches 30–33°C in July [5]. The 0% YES probability may reflect a misalignment in contract definition rather than temperature expectations, as the range market clearly anticipates hot conditions.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily 5 a.m. forecast updates and real-time Wunderground readings for Haneda, the official resolution source [2]. Any sudden shift in humidity or cloud cover ahead of the 11 a.m.–6 p.m. peak heat window could alter outcomes, especially if a heat dome intensifies as seen in July 2025 [6][10]. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, timing is critical for last-minute position adjustments.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.