Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily high temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data frames this market sharply: July in Tokyo typically sees highs between 26°C and 35°C, with recent years pushing national records to 41.2°C in Tamba City [5][6]. Haneda’s own July 2026 forecast projects daily highs from 26°C to 35°C [1][2], while the crowd-implied probability of 0% for temperatures hitting 30°C diverges significantly from the 35.5% price on Lines.com for the same threshold [10]. This gap suggests either thin liquidity or a misread of seasonal norms, as meteorological consensus expects temperatures well above 30°C in mid-July.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily bulletins and Wunderground’s live Haneda feed, the official resolution source [3]. Recent heatwaves in western Japan, including the 41.2°C record in Hyogo Prefecture, signal rising summer intensity that could elevate Haneda’s temps beyond typical ranges [5]. No specific announcements are scheduled, but the agency’s weekly climate outlooks and any sudden shifts in Pacific pressure systems will be critical dependencies. Thin volume and fragmented bracket structures on competing platforms mean prices may swing rapidly as new data arrives, so real-time tracking of Wunderground’s hourly updates is essential for accurate positioning [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.