Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record a daily maximum temperature on 14 August 2026, with settlement determined by the highest reading in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current inability to price a specific temperature range, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or extreme uncertainty about which bracket will contain the actual high.

August in Tokyo typically sees daily maxima between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that mid-August temperatures at Haneda have ranged from 29°C to 37.8°C over the past two decades, with 2010 and 2013 recording particularly severe heat. The current flat probability distribution indicates traders are treating this as a genuine open question rather than pricing in seasonal norms or recent warming trends.

Meaningful divergence between prediction markets and traditional weather forecasting services typically emerges only within 7–10 days of the settlement date, when numerical weather models gain precision. Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August 2026, as storm systems can suppress temperatures significantly. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 14 August, requiring resolution against Haneda's official observations within hours of the daily maximum occurring.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.