Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES position suggests traders are either awaiting clearer range definitions or treating this as a placeholder market pending full specification.

Taipei's June climate is characterised by early monsoon season conditions and rising summer heat. Historical records from Songshan Airport show June highs typically range between 28–34°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% probability across all outcomes indicates the market has not yet attracted substantive trading activity, making cross-platform comparison impossible at present. Without published sportsbook lines or analyst consensus forecasts specifically targeting this date, the current state reflects an inactive contract awaiting trader participation to establish meaningful odds divergence.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 June 2026, giving traders approximately 18 months to monitor seasonal weather patterns and any emerging climate anomalies. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead, which will become the primary catalyst for position adjustments as the date approaches. Traders should note that Songshan Airport's urban location in central Taipei may record slightly elevated temperatures compared to surrounding areas due to heat island effects, a factor historical data will reflect but forward-looking forecasts may underweight.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.