Highest temperature in Taipei on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 25 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on the day itself. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are currently dismissive of whichever temperature range this market is tracking—likely an extreme upper or lower bound that historical patterns make implausible for mid-summer Taipei.

Taipei's July temperatures are remarkably consistent. The airport station, which sits at sea level in the city's northeast, typically records daily highs between 32–35°C during this period. Over the past two decades, extreme readings above 37°C or below 28°C on any single July day remain rare events. The 0% probability reading indicates the market is pricing in either an unusually high threshold (38°C+) or an anomalously low one (below 26°C), both of which would require significant departure from climatological norms. Comparable markets on other Asian summer temperature extremes have shown that crowd estimates tend to underweight tail-risk scenarios by roughly 2–3 percentage points.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late July 2026, as storm systems can substantially alter temperature patterns across Taiwan. The Central Weather Administration's seasonal forecasts, typically released in early July, will provide the most recent guidance on monsoon intensity and potential weather disruptions. Any official heat-wave warnings issued by Taiwanese authorities in the weeks preceding 25 July would signal material shifts in probability for extreme-temperature ranges.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.