Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei Songshan Airport is currently experiencing heavy rain and typhoon conditions on 11 July 2026, with a recorded temperature of 27.8°C and an apparent temperature of 29.8°C as of 08:00 local time [8]. The 10-day forecast confirms a typhoon event for today, predicting 100% rain coverage and temperatures capped at 83°F (28.3°C) before rising slightly tomorrow [2]. This active weather system directly suppresses the likelihood of extreme heat, aligning with the market’s current 0% implied probability for any high-temperature outcome.

Historically, July is Taipei’s hottest month, with average highs at Songshan reaching 33°C (92°F) and frequent peaks above 35°C in clear-sky years [1][4]. However, typhoon interference is a known disruptor; during similar events in recent decades, maximum temperatures have dropped to 28–29°C due to cloud cover and precipitation [2]. The current 0% probability reflects this divergence: while the seasonal baseline suggests high heat, the immediate meteorological reality of a typhoon makes extreme temperatures statistically improbable.

Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s hourly updates for typhoon trajectory shifts, as a rapid eastward move could clear skies and allow temperatures to rebound toward the seasonal average [8]. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s daily maximum for RCSS, so any late-afternoon clearing before the 12:00Z cutoff could alter the outcome [9]. No official announcements have yet revised the typhoon forecast, but the 10-day outlook indicates a potential temperature rise to 94°F (34.4°C) by 12 July, suggesting the storm’s peak impact is confined to today [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.