Highest temperature in Taipei on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the Taipei Songshan Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines the outcome of a weather-based prediction market. While the current crowd-implied probability for the market’s “YES” outcome sits at 0%, this figure diverges sharply from active trading on Polymarket, where 31°C is the frontrunner at 30% and 32°C follows closely at 28%[1]. This discrepancy suggests a meaningful gap between passive sentiment and informed trader consensus, with the latter aligning more closely with historical July averages at this location, which typically see highs near 92°F (33°C)[2].

Historical data from recent years shows that July is consistently the hottest month in Taipei, with average highs well above 87°F, making temperatures in the 31–33°C range highly plausible rather than exceptional[2]. The market’s 0% implied probability appears to ignore this baseline, whereas Polymarket’s pricing reflects a more grounded expectation based on comparable cases. Traders should monitor the 10-day forecast for Taipei, which currently predicts heavy rain and a high of only 87°F (31°C) on 10 July, potentially suppressing peak temperatures[5]. Any sudden shift in weather patterns, such as reduced cloud cover or a drop in humidity, could act as a catalyst for higher readings, so real-time updates from Wunderground and the Central Weather Administration are critical[7][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.