Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

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Market context

Singapore's daily maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at Changi Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must commit positions before the full day's readings are finalised. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or minimal trading activity on this specific contract.

Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily maxima throughout the year, with May typically recording highs between 32–34°C. Historical data from Changi Airport shows May averages cluster tightly around 33°C, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 35°C or falling below 31°C. This narrow seasonal band explains why prediction markets on Singapore weather often concentrate probability mass in the 32–34°C ranges; deviations require either unusual weather systems or measurement anomalies rather than typical seasonal variation.

The 0% probability reading reflects either a market gap or the absence of traders willing to stake positions on less-probable temperature bands. Traders should monitor the Meteorological Service Singapore's forecasts in the weeks preceding 26 May, particularly any alerts regarding monsoon activity or tropical systems that could shift temperatures outside the normal range. Wunderground's historical archive provides the definitive resolution source, making data availability and station calibration the key technical dependencies for settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.