Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July 2026, a date that historically aligns with the Southwest Monsoon season and typical tropical highs. While one prediction market currently implies a 0% chance for any outcome above 25°C, a competing platform heavily favours 32°C at 44.5%, with 31°C as the next likely outcome at 31.5%. This stark divergence suggests a significant mispricing in the contract with zero probability, as climatological norms and the Meteorological Service Singapore’s projection of above-average temperatures for the monsoon period strongly contradict the 0% implied probability [1].

Historical data confirms that daily high temperatures in Singapore during July rarely fall below 85°F (29.4°C) or exceed 91°F (32.8°C), with averages hovering near 88°F (31.1°C) [5]. The global context further supports higher readings, as July 2024 was the warmest July on record globally, and recent heatwaves have pushed ocean temperatures to "hot tub levels" [2][3]. Given that Changi Airport has shown a steady rise in annual mean temperature from 1948 to 2019, the 0% probability line appears detached from the established warming trend and regional monsoon patterns [9].

Traders should monitor the Meteorological Service Singapore’s weekly weather bulletins for updates on the Southwest Monsoon’s intensity, as shifts in cloud cover or rainfall could alter peak temperatures [1]. The settlement relies on Wunderground data, so any discrepancies in station reporting or gear-icon temperature setting errors between °F and °C could impact resolution accuracy [8]. Analyst consensus across platforms points to 31–32°C as the realistic range, making the current 0% line a clear outlier that ignores both local climatology and global heat records [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.