Highest temperature in Singapore on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Singapore’s highest temperature on 6 August is being priced as a fairly tight tropical-weather call, but the crowd is treating the most likely outcome as a mid-30s-Celsius cap rather than an extreme spike. The current Polymarket book has **32°C** at 78% and **31°C** at 15%, while adjacent outcomes are only lightly priced, which leaves little room for a surprise versus the sportsbook-style consensus implied by the market itself.[2] That is consistent with commercial weather forecasts for Singapore in early August, which cluster around daily highs in the mid-to-high 80s Fahrenheit, or roughly 31–31.5°C, with AccuWeather’s monthly outlook showing highs around 84°F to 88°F and Changi Airport-specific guidance pointing to about 86°F on 6 August.[1][16]

Historically, Singapore in August tends to sit near 31°C daytime maxima, with humidity and brief showers limiting how often readings run much above that baseline.[5][10][18] That framing helps explain why a 0% YES price for the exact-market question can coexist with a strong view on the most likely range: if the settlement band is broader than the crowd’s favoured 32°C slot, the probability can look negligible even when the underlying temperature forecast is ordinary for the season.[2][5] NEA has also said drier conditions are expected in the coming fortnight, which points to less rain suppression than in a wetter monsoon spell, but not necessarily enough to push the airport station beyond the low-30s Celsius regime.[12][13]

For traders, the main catalyst is the live evolution of the Changi Airport reading through Singapore’s afternoon heating cycle, because the contract resolves off the day’s highest recorded temperature at that station, not a citywide average.[2][16] The key dependency is whether convective cloud or a passing shower trims the peak before local late-afternoon warmth is measured; if skies hold longer, the market’s dominant 32°C line becomes easier to justify, while an early shower would favour 31°C or lower.[2][12][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Singapore on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.