Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will determine the settlement range for this contract. Shenzhen's subtropical climate produces consistently warm conditions during early June, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 28°C and 34°C during this period. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the precise temperature bands available or expect settlement data to be unavailable, rather than reflecting genuine confidence that no temperature will be recorded.

Shenzhen's June weather patterns are shaped by the onset of the pre-monsoon season, with increasing humidity and occasional rainfall events that can suppress daytime highs. Historical data from Bao'an Airport shows considerable year-to-year variation; June 2023 recorded peaks near 32°C whilst June 2024 saw several days exceed 33°C. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database, which maintains consistent records for this station but occasionally experiences delays in data publication for recent dates.

Traders should monitor actual weather forecasts as the date approaches, particularly any tropical weather systems that might develop in the South China Sea during late May or early June. The current zero probability likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than meaningful divergence from meteorological expectations. Cross-platform comparison data remains sparse given the contract's specificity to a single airport station and narrow settlement window, limiting arbitrage opportunities against traditional weather forecasting services or international sportsbooks.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.