Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen's peak temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at Bao'an International Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground records. July is consistently Shenzhen's hottest month, with daily highs typically ranging from 32–35°C, though occasional heat waves push readings above 36°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature range before the market locks.

Historical data from the past decade shows Shenzhen rarely exceeds 37°C in July, with extreme readings above 38°C occurring roughly once every three to five years. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either a cooler-than-typical July or confidence in lower temperature brackets. This divergence from seasonal norms warrants scrutiny: if the market is pricing the highest temperature below 32°C, that would represent a substantial deviation from July climatology. Comparable prediction markets on Chinese city temperatures have typically seen probability mass concentrated in the 33–35°C range during this period.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early July 2026, which will provide the most granular guidance on whether monsoon patterns or high-pressure systems dominate that week. Sea-surface temperatures in the South China Sea and any tropical cyclone activity in the region could materially shift outcomes. The airport station's location near coastal areas means maritime influences may moderate extremes compared to inland Shenzhen readings, a factor worth cross-referencing against historical station-specific data rather than city-wide averages.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.