Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s highest temperature on 1 August will be the afternoon maximum recorded at Bao’an International Airport, and the market is currently pricing a **0% yes** outcome despite the city’s normal August heat. Seasonal benchmarks put Shenzhen’s August daytime highs around **32–32.2°C** (about 89–90°F), with typical daily highs “rarely” below the low 80s Fahrenheit and occasional extremes close to 38°C in the broader historical record.[6][7][8][16]

That makes the current implied probability look far below the climatological baseline, although the contract is narrower than a citywide average because it settles on one station and one date. Comparable August histories for Shenzhen point to expected highs around **90°F/32°C** on 1 August, with some long-run sources showing a record August high of **103°F** in the wider city data and others listing August daily highs around **97°F** for the first of the month, so the relevant frame is not “cold versus hot” but whether the station lands in the lower, middle or upper part of its usual summer band.[1][3][4][5]

For traders, the main catalysts are the morning-to-afternoon temperature build, cloud cover, rainfall and any tropical system affecting southern Guangdong, because Shenzhen’s heat is often moderated abruptly by heavy showers or storm bands. The key dependency is the Wunderground station reading itself, so a broad Shenzhen forecast matters less than conditions at Bao’an Airport; by early August, market pricing in weather contracts usually tracks short-term forecast revisions, with the biggest moves coming from rainfall/typhoon outlook changes rather than from month-average climate norms.[9][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.