Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 28 May 2026 will determine which temperature band captures the day's peak reading at Pudong International Airport. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database, which records hourly observations throughout each calendar day. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature range options available or expect conditions to fall outside the implied range entirely.

Late May in Shanghai typically sits within the pre-monsoon transition period, when daily highs average 28–31°C. Historical data from prior years shows considerable variability: temperatures have ranged from 24°C on cooler days to 35°C during early heat waves. The absence of meaningful trading activity on this contract—reflected in the zero probability—may indicate limited liquidity or that the temperature bands offered are poorly calibrated against seasonal norms. Comparable May weather across recent years provides a baseline: 2023 saw highs of 29–32°C, whilst 2024 recorded peaks between 27–30°C.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 28 May, as these will offer the most reliable medium-range guidance. Any significant weather systems moving through the Yangtze River Delta region—tropical depressions or cold fronts—would shift outcomes materially. Current atmospheric patterns and any official alerts issued by Shanghai's meteorological bureau will be the primary catalysts affecting settlement outcomes. The resolution window closes at noon UTC on the settlement date, meaning only morning and early-afternoon observations will count.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.