Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 9 June 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground's historical records. Early June in Shanghai typically sees highs between 28–32°C as the city transitions into summer monsoon season, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this contract or treating it as a placeholder pending clearer seasonal forecasts.

Historical June data from Shanghai shows considerable year-to-year variance. The city recorded 37.8°C on 9 June 2013 and 28.5°C on the same date in 2019, illustrating the 9°C range common to early summer weather patterns. Comparable prediction markets on Shanghai temperatures typically see meaningful probability density across 28–34°C bands, with tail outcomes (sub-26°C or above-36°C) receiving minimal backing. The current zero probability reflects either thin liquidity or a technical listing issue rather than genuine market consensus.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal forecasts, typically released in May, which inform expectations for June heat patterns. La Niña or El Niño conditions influence East Asian summer monsoon intensity and can shift Shanghai's temperature profile by 2–3°C. Recent years have shown increasing frequency of early-summer heat events, though individual-day forecasting remains subject to substantial uncertainty beyond the two-week window. Resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's Pudong station data, which occasionally experiences brief outages requiring manual verification against backup sources.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.