Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 8 June 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that calendar day. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity on this particular contract.

June temperatures in Shanghai typically range between 24°C and 32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early summer heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that mid-June highs rarely exceed 35°C at the airport station, though 2013 recorded a 38.9°C maximum on 8 August. The 0% probability reading appears disconnected from seasonal norms; comparable weather markets on other platforms and meteorological consensus typically assign non-trivial odds to temperature ranges spanning 28–34°C for this period. The divergence suggests either thin liquidity or a market structure issue rather than genuine forecaster conviction.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the East Asian monsoon pattern developing in late May and early June 2026, which will determine whether subtropical high-pressure systems dominate Shanghai's weather. China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks, typically released in May, will provide official guidance on temperature anomalies. Any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early June could suppress temperatures or create volatility in market pricing closer to settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.