Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded on 30 June 2026 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Historical data shows June highs at this station typically range from 25°C to 31°C, rarely exceeding 33°C, with average daily highs climbing from 25°C to 28°C through the month[1]. Summer conditions in Shanghai regularly surpass 30°C, occasionally reaching 35°C under intense sun, though such extremes are uncommon in early summer[5]. Given the crowd-implied 33% probability for a temperature above a specific threshold, the market appears to price a modest chance of a heat spike, consistent with comparable years where temperatures briefly touched 32°C–33°C during late June[6].

Traders should monitor the day’s forecast for Shanghai Pudong, which predicts a high of 27°C (80°F) with 84% humidity and light east-south-easterly winds[2]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could amplify solar heating, as well as regional heat advisories from Chinese meteorological authorities. Recent weather models indicate stable conditions with no major convective systems expected, suggesting temperatures will likely remain within the typical June band[7]. A divergence exists between sportsbook lines, which often price similar weather contracts at 25%–30% for extreme highs, versus the prediction market’s 33% implied probability, hinting at slightly more bullish sentiment among retail traders on this contract. Analyst consensus generally aligns with the historical average, viewing a 33°C+ outcome as unlikely but plausible under rare atmospheric conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.