Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 27 June 2026, Shanghai is experiencing sunny conditions with a high of 29°C at Hongqiao, while the Pudong International Airport station—used for this market’s resolution—typically sees daily highs climbing from 77°F to 83°F (25°C to 28°C) in June, rarely exceeding 92°F (33°C) [3]. Historical climate data confirms that summer highs in Shanghai regularly surpass 30°C (86°F), reaching 35°C (95°F) during peak sunshine [5]. Given this pattern, a 0% implied probability for the “YES” outcome suggests the market is betting the temperature will fall outside the expected range, which contradicts seasonal norms where highs consistently exceed 28°C [3][5].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Pudong station, as the resolution hinges on the highest recorded temperature across all times on 27 June [market description]. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather indicate June 2026 highs at Pudong will range between 80°F and 86°F (27°C–30°C), aligning with long-term averages [4]. Any divergence from this—such as a sudden drop below 25°C or a spike above 33°C—would be anomalous and worth investigating. While no specific weather announcements are currently scheduled, the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 27 June, so traders must act before that deadline to capture any last-minute data shifts [market description]. The current 0% probability appears misaligned with analyst consensus, which expects temperatures within the 27°C–30°C band [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.