Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 23 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Current crowd-implied probability for the market is 0% YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range, despite historical data indicating June is typically hot in Shanghai.

Historical patterns frame this probability sharply: June at Pudong sees daily highs averaging 77°F to 83°F (25°C to 28°C), rarely dropping below 69°F (21°C) or exceeding 92°F (33°C), with summer highs regularly surpassing 30°C (86°F) and reaching 35°C (95°F) on sunny days [3][5][7]. This contradicts the 0% implied probability, as even modest heat would likely land within common temperature bands, creating a notable divergence between prediction-market odds and analyst consensus on seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from the National Weather Service and Wunderground, particularly for light showers or heavy rain forecasts that could suppress temperatures, as June is Shanghai’s peak precipitation month [1][2]. Recent forecasts for 23 June indicate heavy rain and a gentle breeze with a high of 24°C (76°F), which may explain the market’s bearish stance, though any sudden shift to clear skies could invalidate the 0% probability [2]. No official announcements are pending, but continuous data feeds from Wunderground remain the critical dependency for settlement [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 23? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.