Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The contract resolves on the hottest reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station on 31 July 2026, and the market is currently pricing that outcome at **0% YES**, which is much lower than what Shanghai’s summer climatology would normally imply.[4][9][15] July is typically one of the city’s hottest months, with average highs around 31–32°C and frequent days in the mid-30s, while recent Shanghai heat episodes have produced prolonged runs above 35°C and citywide records above 40°C at inland stations.[4][11][17]

That said, airport temperatures usually run a touch below the most extreme urban readings, so the exact threshold matters more than the headline “hot day” forecast. Historical July 31 data for Shanghai show highs often near the low- to mid-30s, with one recent July 31 reading at 34.2°C in a city history dataset, and multiple July 2026 days already pushing into the mid-30s elsewhere in Shanghai.[15][16] Against that backdrop, a zero-implied price looks like a strong divergence from seasonal expectation rather than a view that extreme heat is impossible.

Traders should watch the near-term forecast cycle for any late shift in the subtropical ridge, as Shanghai’s hottest days are usually driven by persistent high pressure, strong sunshine and limited rainfall rather than a single scheduled event.[4][18] The key dependency is whether overnight humidity and cloud cover suppress the afternoon maximum at Pudong, since the market settles on the day’s highest official temperature rather than a daily average.[6] In cross-platform terms, sportsbook-style weather lines tend to move with forecast updates, while prediction-market pricing can stay pinned if liquidity is thin; here, the 0% YES quote is the main outlier unless fresh forecasts point to an unusually cool coastal airmass.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.