Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records via Wunderground. July represents the height of summer in Shanghai, when daily highs typically range between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events can push readings above 37°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature swing before the market locks.

Historical July data from Shanghai shows considerable year-to-year variation. The city has recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C during exceptional heatwaves, most recently in 2013 when 40.8°C was reached. However, such extremes occur in fewer than one in five July days. More typical peak temperatures cluster around 33–34°C. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either a specific temperature threshold that historical patterns deem unlikely, or significant uncertainty about which temperature band the market has defined as the YES resolution range.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late July 2026, which typically become reliable five to seven days ahead. Broader atmospheric patterns—including the position of the Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific—drive Shanghai's summer temperatures. El Niño or La Niña conditions in 2026 could influence regional heat distribution, though seasonal forecasts remain uncertain at present. Real-time weather data from Wunderground will be the sole arbiter of settlement, making the accuracy of that station's instrumentation the final determinant.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.