Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 14 July 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the market's current inability to price a specific temperature range, likely because the settlement window closes at midday on the resolution date itself, creating a compressed observation period that ends before typical peak afternoon heating occurs.

Shanghai's July climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical records showing average daily highs around 32–33°C and extremes occasionally exceeding 37°C during heat waves. The city's urban heat island effect, particularly around the airport in Pudong's developed eastern districts, typically elevates readings above surrounding rural areas. Comparable July days from recent years (2023–2025) show the highest temperatures clustering between 31–36°C, though anomalous conditions have occasionally pushed readings above 38°C. The settlement window's noon cutoff is material: Shanghai's diurnal cycle typically peaks between 14:00 and 16:00, meaning the market resolves before the day's warmest hours.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, which can suppress temperatures or introduce sudden rainfall. Recent monsoon patterns and the phase of the East Asian summer monsoon will influence whether 14 July experiences typical convective heating or disrupted conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea, currently tracked by regional weather services, also correlate with Shanghai's daily maxima during mid-summer.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.