Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is currently experiencing strong winds and rain on 12 July 2026, with overcast skies suppressing any chance of extreme heat. This active weather pattern directly explains the 0% crowd-implied probability for a high-temperature outcome, as precipitation and cloud cover prevent the solar heating required to push temperatures into the upper ranges typically seen in mid-summer.

Historical data for July at Pudong shows daily highs usually climb between 29°C and 31°C (84°F–88°F), rarely exceeding 35°C (95°F) even during the most sunny spells [1][5]. Comparable cases from recent years indicate that when rain systems like the one active today dominate, maximum temperatures often stall near 30°C or lower, making a record-breaking heat event statistically improbable. The current wet conditions align with this cooler historical trend, reinforcing the market’s zero-probability stance.

Traders should monitor the duration of the rain system and wind speeds, which are forecast at 19 m/s with heavy precipitation expected to persist through Sunday evening [10]. A sudden shift to clear skies and reduced wind would be the primary catalyst for a temperature spike, though no such announcement is currently scheduled. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC today and weather remaining unsettled, the divergence between sportsbook lines (if any exist) and the prediction market’s 0% YES probability reflects a consensus that the atmospheric conditions are fundamentally incompatible with high heat.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.