Highest temperature in Seoul on May 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 30 May 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the market captures the full calendar day's high temperature in Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting traders are either uncommitted or awaiting clearer seasonal forecasting as the date approaches.

May temperatures in Seoul typically range between 20–28°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 30°C during early heat waves. The 30-year average high for late May at Incheon sits around 24–25°C. Comparable years show significant variance: May 2018 saw highs near 29°C, whilst cooler years like 2015 recorded peaks around 22°C. This historical spread of roughly 7–8°C between typical and exceptional days explains why the current zero probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus certainty.

Traders should monitor South Korean meteorological forecasts released in early May, particularly the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended outlook for late-month conditions. El Niño or La Niña phase transitions, which influence North Pacific weather patterns through spring, will shape whether subtropical air masses push northward into the Korean peninsula. Recent patterns from April and early May 2026 will provide the most actionable signal for positioning, as they indicate whether the season is tracking warmer or cooler than the 30-year norm. The absence of any meaningful market activity suggests this contract may attract late-stage traders once deterministic forecasts emerge within two weeks of settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.