Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

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Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 28 May 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport, the official meteorological station for the region. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, capturing the highest reading across the full calendar day. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting traders are either absent from this contract or have assigned negligible likelihood to all temperature bands—a common pattern for weather markets with limited trading volume or unclear range definitions.

Historical May temperatures in Seoul cluster around 24–28°C, with occasional peaks near 30°C during early heat waves. The 2020 and 2023 May records show maximum temperatures ranging from 26–29°C across the month, providing a baseline for typical late-spring conditions. Anomalously warm years have pushed into the low 30s, though this remains the exception rather than the norm. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects either missing price discovery or a market structure where no single temperature band has attracted sufficient backing to register measurable odds.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts as May approaches, particularly any signals of early monsoon activity or high-pressure systems that could drive temperatures upward. Sea-surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea and atmospheric circulation patterns in late May will be material factors. The absence of meaningful trading volume means this market remains vulnerable to sharp repricing once serious participants enter, particularly if seasonal forecasts shift toward warmer-than-average conditions in the weeks preceding settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.