Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, with settlement determined by Weather Underground's historical data for that calendar day. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal trading activity on this contract. Cross-platform comparison reveals no meaningful divergence: traditional weather forecasting services and sportsbook operators rarely price individual daily temperature outcomes this far in advance, leaving prediction markets as the primary venue for such granular bets.

Historical Seoul weather data from late May shows typical highs between 24–28°C, with occasional spikes to 30°C during early heat waves. The 2023 and 2024 records for this period suggest a clustering around 26–27°C as the modal outcome. Current zero probability on at least one temperature band indicates either that traders have eliminated certain ranges entirely or that the market has insufficient liquidity to generate meaningful odds across all settlement buckets. Without recent analyst consensus or meteorological alerts specific to May 2026, the baseline expectation remains aligned with climatological norms for this season.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts as spring 2026 approaches, particularly any signals regarding early monsoon activity or heat dome formation over East Asia. Incheon's coastal location moderates extreme temperatures compared to inland Seoul, a factor that should anchor expectations toward the historical mean rather than outlier scenarios. Resolution depends entirely on Weather Underground's archival data quality for that specific station on that specific date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.