Highest temperature in Seoul on June 9?

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Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will determine which range this market resolves to, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC that day. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal engagement with this particular contract. Incheon's June climate typically sees daily highs between 24°C and 28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical temperature data for that specific station, making measurement consistency the primary resolution dependency.

Seoul's early June weather patterns show considerable year-to-year variation. The past decade has produced June 9th highs ranging from 19°C in cooler years to 31°C during anomalous heat events, with most occurrences clustering between 23°C and 27°C. The 2020 reading of 28°C and 2018's 25°C represent more typical outcomes for this date. Current meteorological forecasts remain unavailable at this distance from the event, limiting traders' ability to incorporate seasonal predictions or atmospheric pattern analysis.

Traders should monitor late-May weather pattern developments across East Asia, particularly the timing and intensity of early monsoon systems and any high-pressure ridges that could drive continental air masses toward the Korean peninsula. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes monthly climate outlooks that may offer guidance on June temperature probabilities by late April 2026. Any significant deviation from normal seasonal progression—early heat waves or persistent cool patterns—would warrant reassessment of the probability distribution across available temperature ranges.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.