Highest temperature in Seoul on June 8?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 8 June 2026 will determine the settlement of this market, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific date and location. The crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or minimal engagement with the contract ahead of the settlement window.

Seoul's early June climate typically sits between 20–28°C, though daily highs can occasionally exceed 30°C during anomalous warm spells. Historical data from comparable years shows 8 June temperatures clustering around 24–26°C at Incheon, with outlier highs above 28°C occurring roughly once per decade. The 0% probability across all outcome ranges is unusual for a weather market and likely reflects low liquidity rather than genuine consensus; similar Korean temperature markets on other platforms show distributed probabilities across multiple bands rather than concentrated certainty.

Traders should monitor South Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 8 June 2026, which typically provide reliable 7–10 day outlooks. Any early-season heat warnings or subtropical air mass advisories issued by the KMA would signal upward pressure on temperature expectations. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Weather Underground's historical records for Incheon station; traders should verify the platform's data availability and accuracy for that specific date once June approaches, as occasional gaps or corrections in historical weather databases can affect resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.