Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 4 June 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. Seoul's early summer weather typically sees daily highs between 24–28°C in early June, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact temperature bands available or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine forecast opportunity.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest daily temperatures in early June ranged from 21°C to 32°C, with most years clustering around 25–27°C. The 2018 heat wave pushed June readings toward 30°C, whilst cooler years saw highs barely exceed 22°C. This volatility reflects the transition period between spring and summer monsoon patterns in East Asia, making single-day forecasts inherently uncertain without access to the specific temperature bands this market offers.

Traders should monitor South Korea's Meteorological Administration forecasts as June approaches, particularly any alerts regarding early-season heat waves or unusual weather systems. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues detailed ten-day forecasts by late May. Sea surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea and any developing tropical systems in the Western Pacific could influence Seoul's weather trajectory. Current global climate models show no exceptional anomalies predicted for early June 2026, though seasonal forecasts remain preliminary at this distance.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.