Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded on 26 June 2026 at the Incheon International Airport Station in Seoul, measured in degrees Celsius. Long-term averages for Seoul in June show daytime maximums typically reaching 26°C, with a range of 19°C to 28°C and about seven rainy days per month[1][2]. Historical data from June 2026 indicates the highest maximum temperature recorded so far this month was 34.0°C on 19 June, suggesting that extreme heat spikes are possible but not the norm[8]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome likely reflects a market expectation that the temperature will fall within a lower range, consistent with the typical early-summer profile rather than the intense heat of midsummer[2].

Traders should monitor the onset of Korea’s monsoon season, which usually begins in late June and can bring heavy downpours that suppress temperatures[2]. Recent weather reports from 25 June 2026 noted heavy afternoon downpours with daytime temperatures around 26°C in Seoul, indicating that rain events are already influencing conditions[10]. The resolution source is Wunderground’s daily high for the Incheon station, so any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation timing could alter the final reading[1]. Analyst consensus, based on long-term climate normals, points to a mean June temperature of 22.7°C, with the average warmest day at 28.06°C, framing the 0% probability as a bet against an outlier heat spike[8][9]. Divergence between sportsbook lines and prediction-market implied odds may arise if short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration signal a heatwave, as their latest short-term forecast shows a maximum of 30°C for the day[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.