Highest temperature in Seoul on June 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 June 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and recorded in Celsius. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are either heavily confident in a specific temperature range or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across all possible outcomes. This represents a stark divergence from typical weather prediction markets, where temperature ranges usually attract distributed probabilities reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty.

Seoul's June climate presents a narrow band of likely outcomes. Historical data from June shows daily highs typically ranging between 24°C and 28°C, with occasional excursions to 30°C during early heat waves. The 0% reading across all ranges is anomalous compared to comparable weather markets on other platforms, which generally show probability mass distributed across multiple temperature brackets. This suggests either extreme confidence in a single range or insufficient trading activity to establish equilibrium pricing.

Traders should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's forecasts as the settlement date approaches, particularly any alerts regarding early-season heat or unusual atmospheric patterns. Sea surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea and any developing high-pressure systems over East Asia will influence outcomes. The measurement methodology—using Incheon airport data rather than central Seoul stations—matters, as airport locations can record different extremes than urban centres. Resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data feed for that specific station on that specific date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.